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Friday, May 14, 2010

WSJ.com's Political Diary - How Scott Brown Changed Massachusetts

Two Party State

Massachusetts Democrats who thought the victory of Scott Brown in January was a fluke and represented no sign of a revived Republican Party in their state might want to think again.

This week saw a special election for the state senate seat that Mr. Brown gave up when he became a U.S. Senator. The suburban Boston district has been competitive, with Mr. Brown first winning it in a 2003 special election with only 51%.

This time it wasn't even close. GOP State Representative Richard Ross defeated Democrat Peter Smulowitz, an emergency-room physician, with 62% of the vote. Mr. Ross even won Needham, a liberal bastion in the district, by over 200 votes. "The Democratic machine is striking out in Massachusetts," claimed Jennifer Nassour, the state's GOP chairwoman.

Not quite. The highly competitive race for governor has seen Democratic Governor Deval Patrick rebound somewhat from his recent dismal poll numbers. He now leads Republican Charlie Baker, a protégé of former GOP Governor Bill Weld, and state Treasurer Tim Cahill, who left the Democratic Party to run as an independent last year. In a new Rasmussen poll, Mr. Patrick scores 45% support against 31% for his GOP opponent Mr. Baker.

But Mr. Patrick's improvement appears to be based largely on the faltering of Mr. Cahill, who has lately been the subject of GOP attack ads. Mr. Baker, a former health-care executive, is still having trouble putting together the coalition of economic and social conservatives that Mr. Brown assembled. Much of Mr. Cahill's 15% support in polls represents social conservatives who remain put off by Mr. Baker's failure to make overtures to them.

-- John Fund

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