BREAKING: A Honeymoon Cut Short - from WSJ.com Political Diary

Fractured Fairytale

A surprising development in off-year races for governor in New Jersey and Virginia is just how much trouble the Democratic nominees have had in nailing down African-American voters.
Yesterday, Sheila Crump Johnson, the billionaire co-founder of Black Entertainment Television, endorsed Republican Bob McDonnell for governor of Virginia. Ms. Johnson has been a prominent contributor to Democrats for years -- boosting Barack Obama's candidacy and serving as the second-largest donor to sitting Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine.

Ms. Johnson told reporters yesterday she was backing Mr. McConnell because "he understands that we have to help businesses in our state -- both big and small -- thrive so that we put Virginians back to work."

Creigh Deeds, the Democratic candidate for governor, is worried about other potential Democratic defectors. Former Gov. Doug Wilder says he hasn't responded to appeals from aides to President Obama to endorse Mr. Deeds. "I told them, 'You need to tell me why,'" Mr. Wilder told reporters, noting that he's had differences with Mr. Deeds during the latter's 18-year-career in the legislature.

Meanwhile, New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine continues to struggle to nail down black support despite a fly-in appearance by President Obama last week. A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Mr. Corzine winning African-American voters by only 66% to 29% -- well below normal numbers for a Democratic nominee. Republican Chris Christie has some appeal to minority voters because of his reputation as a crusader against public corruption.

The Rev. Reginald T. Jackson, leader of the Black Ministers Council of New Jersey, says Mr. Corzine could bolster his inner-city support by backing a pending bill in the legislature that would allow companies to use tax deductions to pay tuitions for poor kids to attend the public, charter or private school of their choice. "If you announced today that you have $500,000 in scholarships in Orange tomorrow, people would line up in Orange tonight," Rev. Jackson, who heads a large church in Orange, told North Jersey News. But he says Mr. Corzine appears to be boxed in by his need to placate the powerful New Jersey Education Association, which represents the state's public school establishment.

It would be a rich irony if a year following the election of the nation's first black president, Republicans might be elected in two key Obama states this fall on the strength of their minority support.
-- John Fund

Corzine Plays a Weak Hand, Weakly - Corzine Plays the Bush Card - WSJ.com's Political Diary

Democratic Governor Jon Corzine of New Jersey is being dragged down by the weak economy. Up for re-election this November, a new Quinnipiac University poll finds him trailing former federal prosecutor Chris Christie by 53% to 41% among likely voters.
Mr. Corzine's basic problem is that only a third of New Jersey residents think he is doing a good job, and they blame him for high taxes -- cited by 45% as the state's biggest problem -- and a general decline in the state's quality of life. All this plays to Mr. Christie's strengths as a corruption-busting prosecutor who says he will offer "real choices rather than fake reform" if he is elected.
That said, Mr. Corzine will no doubt spend millions from his personal fortune to paint his opponent as an inexperienced extremist. In 1993, such tactics helped revive unpopular Governor James Florio enough that he lost his re-election bid to Republican Christie Whitman by only one percentage point.
But Mr. Corzine will have to attack carefully. One of his favorite tactics appears to be already backfiring. Linking Mr. Christie to George W. Bush is falling flat with voters. Quinnipiac found that only a tenth of voters say Mr. Corzine's attempts to tie his opponent to the Bush era are fair, with 77% of voters saying Mr. Corzine should stick to state issues. The poll also reveals the governor's weakness among his own base voters. Mr. Christie currently wins almost a fifth of votes of both Democrats and African-Americans, high numbers for a Republican in the Garden State. Mr. Corzine clearly hopes to remedy this shortfall with a rally with President Obama in Holmdel on Thursday. This fall's race will be not only a test of Mr. Corzine's wallet but of Mr. Obama's continued popularity amid a declining economy.
-- John Fund